How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? – Basketball AH Under Points Stats Guide

9/02/2018

How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? – Basketball AH Under Points Stats Guide

How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? Well, if you are used to betting on let’s say football, you will find basketball under/over lines quite different. Let’s say… more dynamic. Whilst football goals lines remain fixed and you can easily define odds for u/o 2.5 or 3.5 goals markets, basketball lines are different pretty much for every single fixture. It depends from team to team, competition and country, as well as gender and of course skill level. To make sense of those lines, we usually focus on the Even money line. That means 50/50 chance and we look for lines with odds as close as 2.00 as possible. But how to get your head around when you see one match with the Full Time Including Over Time AH under/over line of 140.5 whilst another is put to bet with the line of 218.5? Keeping track and calculating all the stats for every team seems very time consuming and not feasible. However, we believe that we have a perfect solution that solves this problem.

Basketball FTOT inc. OT AH Under Points Stats

Our smart basketball stats cover the Asian Handicaps under points markets and work like a treat. We record every Evens money line where possible and use them in future stats calculations. And we will explain how it exactly works below:

One of the first columns that you will notice is the blue coloured AVG column. It’s the average of 73% for Indiana Pacers vs Phoenix Suns for Under AH FTOT inc. OT Points betting. Is it a chance of 73% for the game finishing under 218.5 points at full time after extra time? Not quite. That number is our calculated average based on 6 other factors. Look at the stats breakdown and full walkthrough below:

For every single team’s last 20 matches (in this case, it’s Indiana Pacers) we check for the Evens odds under/over points line and record the under and over results. We can see that the range of the AH under/over lines for Indiana’s matches is 22 points (highest 221.5, lowest 199.5).  You can also spot the odd NULL entry for the line which means that the AH points line and odds were missing at that time (e.g. bookies have not priced it up for some reason or left it very late). In that case, we simply use the current line (218.5 points) for our stats calculations.

The rest is very straightforward and the stats from the tables for Indiana Pacers vs Phoenix Suns mean the following:

HL20 – 75% means that 75% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (15/20 matches)

HL10H – 70% means that 70% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 10 home matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (7/10 matches)

HL6 – 100% means that 100% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 1 match finished in Under AH Goals Line (6/6 matches)

AL20 – 65% means that 65% of Phoenix Suns‘s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (13/20 matches)

AL10A – 60% means that 60% of Phoenix Suns‘s last 10 away matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (6/10 matches)

AL6 – 66% means that 66.66% of Phoenix Suns‘s last 6 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (4/6 matches)

AVG – 73% is the average for all the 6 stats factors above.

H2H No –  7 head to head meetings between these two teams (excluding friendlies)

H2H % – 71% means that 71.5% out of those last 7 matches finished Under AH Goals Line (5/7 matches)

You will also notice the odds of 1.76 for that Under/Over 218.5 points line. You are allowed to be critical about the spread of those odds. In other words, 1.76 is quite far away from the true even money odds (e.g. 1.95/1.95). However, we will blame the bookmakers for not pricing up the markets sooner than a few hours before the kick-off. Hence the lower odds recorded and lines used for the stats calculations.

On the other hand, such good stats could also have been to blame for such low odds. Have a look at the odds and lines movement since they were published by the bookies:

Bear in mind that our Evens money line was 218.5. And that was approximately 6 hours before the game kicked off. The closing Evens money line was 213.5 with plenty more bookmakers offering (copying the markets) this match for the under/over points betting.
This strong line’s drop proves that basketball under/over markets can be very volatile. We must note that this was the case for one of the most popular basketball competition – NBA. My point is that the more popular competition, the more information is available for bookmakers and yourself to research the betting options. But it’s those smaller and less popular leagues and competitions, with limited information and research opportunities, are the most profitable for the professional bettors and traders.

Further Analysis

Our stats and trends are great and will quickly point you to some good qualifiers for your bets and trades. However, in order to give you an even better chance, you will need to do your own research.

If you want to be really good and achieve a great win rate, you will need to be better informed than the bookies. As I mentioned before, you stand a better chance finding your betting niche in some less popular markets/competitions. What should you look for? You don’t need to worry about the weather in basketball betting as it’s an indoor sport. Your main focus should be on team news and morale. Sometimes teams give chance to their youngsters and rest key players, other times many of the main squad players will be out injured. Just think how that extra information can affect your under points betting chances or can help you catch some really good value odds and lines. Where to look for that information? Just browse club websites and social media profiles, players’ social media pages and fan pages for the teams that you are interested in. Also, internet forums and other punters/tipsters may share some information with you.

If you have any interesting tips or resources for basketball under points betting, please feel free to share them in the comments below.

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