How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? – Basketball AH Under Points Stats Guide

9/02/2018

How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? – Basketball AH Under Points Stats Guide

How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? Well, if you are used to betting on let’s say football, you will find basketball under/over lines quite different. Let’s say… more dynamic. Whilst football goals lines remain fixed and you can easily define odds for u/o 2.5 or 3.5 goals markets, basketball lines are different pretty much for every single fixture. It depends from team to team, competition and country, as well as gender and of course skill level. To make sense of those lines, we usually focus on the Even money line. That means 50/50 chance and we look for lines with odds as close as 2.00 as possible. But how to get your head around when you see one match with the Full Time Including Over Time AH under/over line of 140.5 whilst another is put to bet with the line of 218.5? Keeping track and calculating all the stats for every team seems very time consuming and not feasible. However, we believe that we have a perfect solution that solves this problem.

Basketball FTOT inc. OT AH Under Points Stats

Our smart basketball stats cover the Asian Handicaps under points markets and work like a treat. We record every Evens money line where possible and use them in future stats calculations. And we will explain how it exactly works below:

One of the first columns that you will notice is the blue coloured AVG column. It’s the average of 73% for Indiana Pacers vs Phoenix Suns for Under AH FTOT inc. OT Points betting. Is it a chance of 73% for the game finishing under 218.5 points at full time after extra time? Not quite. That number is our calculated average based on 6 other factors. Look at the stats breakdown and full walkthrough below:

For every single team’s last 20 matches (in this case, it’s Indiana Pacers) we check for the Evens odds under/over points line and record the under and over results. We can see that the range of the AH under/over lines for Indiana’s matches is 22 points (highest 221.5, lowest 199.5).  You can also spot the odd NULL entry for the line which means that the AH points line and odds were missing at that time (e.g. bookies have not priced it up for some reason or left it very late). In that case, we simply use the current line (218.5 points) for our stats calculations.

The rest is very straightforward and the stats from the tables for Indiana Pacers vs Phoenix Suns mean the following:

HL20 – 75% means that 75% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (15/20 matches)

HL10H – 70% means that 70% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 10 home matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (7/10 matches)

HL6 – 100% means that 100% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 1 match finished in Under AH Goals Line (6/6 matches)

AL20 – 65% means that 65% of Phoenix Suns‘s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (13/20 matches)

AL10A – 60% means that 60% of Phoenix Suns‘s last 10 away matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (6/10 matches)

AL6 – 66% means that 66.66% of Phoenix Suns‘s last 6 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (4/6 matches)

AVG – 73% is the average for all the 6 stats factors above.

H2H No –  7 head to head meetings between these two teams (excluding friendlies)

H2H % – 71% means that 71.5% out of those last 7 matches finished Under AH Goals Line (5/7 matches)

You will also notice the odds of 1.76 for that Under/Over 218.5 points line. You are allowed to be critical about the spread of those odds. In other words, 1.76 is quite far away from the true even money odds (e.g. 1.95/1.95). However, we will blame the bookmakers for not pricing up the markets sooner than a few hours before the kick-off. Hence the lower odds recorded and lines used for the stats calculations.

On the other hand, such good stats could also have been to blame for such low odds. Have a look at the odds and lines movement since they were published by the bookies:

Bear in mind that our Evens money line was 218.5. And that was approximately 6 hours before the game kicked off. The closing Evens money line was 213.5 with plenty more bookmakers offering (copying the markets) this match for the under/over points betting.
This strong line’s drop proves that basketball under/over markets can be very volatile. We must note that this was the case for one of the most popular basketball competition – NBA. My point is that the more popular competition, the more information is available for bookmakers and yourself to research the betting options. But it’s those smaller and less popular leagues and competitions, with limited information and research opportunities, are the most profitable for the professional bettors and traders.

Further Analysis

Our stats and trends are great and will quickly point you to some good qualifiers for your bets and trades. However, in order to give you an even better chance, you will need to do your own research.

If you want to be really good and achieve a great win rate, you will need to be better informed than the bookies. As I mentioned before, you stand a better chance finding your betting niche in some less popular markets/competitions. What should you look for? You don’t need to worry about the weather in basketball betting as it’s an indoor sport. Your main focus should be on team news and morale. Sometimes teams give chance to their youngsters and rest key players, other times many of the main squad players will be out injured. Just think how that extra information can affect your under points betting chances or can help you catch some really good value odds and lines. Where to look for that information? Just browse club websites and social media profiles, players’ social media pages and fan pages for the teams that you are interested in. Also, internet forums and other punters/tipsters may share some information with you.

If you have any interesting tips or resources for basketball under points betting, please feel free to share them in the comments below.

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Football – Over 2.5 Goals Statistics Guide (Learn to bet on Over 2.5 goals markets)

19/01/2018

Football – Over 2.5 Goals Statistics Guide (Learn to bet on Over 2.5 goals markets)

Football Over 2.5 Goals markets are one of the most popular football betting and trading markets. Whether they are placed as singles or multiples (accumulator coupons) they seem to be a logical market option for goal hungry fans. Every football fan wants to watch a match with plenty of goals and it can only get better when they win theirs over 2.5 goals bets.

Stats

So what does it take to correctly predict matches that finish in over 2.5 goals? Let’s start with our Smart Over 2.5 Goals Statistics:

On that page, you will find two tables – the first consists of matches from the main leagues and competitions and below you will find the second table with the fixtures from so-called lower leagues and competitions. The main reason for splitting the stats this way is the odds availability. We update our stats a couple of nights before the kick-off to give plenty of time to find good value bets and catch good early odds. It works well with those bigger competitions and leagues. You will also notice that the matches in the second table will often be lacking odds and this is because the bookies are not very quick at pricing them up and often do so a few hours before the kick-off or may not offer some matches for betting at all. Saying so, you may find some real gems in terms of stats for those lower leagues & competitions and some pretty good odds too.

The stats themselves are pretty easy to calculate and this particular model has been working great over the years to predict over 2.5 goals correctly. We look at the long, medium and short-term form and trends for both teams, as well as include head to head stats. 

Let’s focus on the TOP 1 stats from our Over 2.5 Goals stats tables for the upcoming fixtures – a match that will take place on the 19th of January 2018. Kasimpasa will host Alanyaspor in Turkish Super League. Why is this match the top one from the main leagues and competitions?

The stats calculations here are straightforward and are as following:

HL20 – 80% means that 80% of Kasimpasa’s last 20 matches finished in O2.5 Goals (16/20 matches)

HL10H – 90% means that 90% of Kasimpasa’s last 10 home matches finished in O2.5 Goals (9/10 matches)

HL6 – 83% means that 83.33% of Kasimpasa’s last 6 matches finished in O2.5 Goals (5/6 matches)

AL20 – 70% means that 70% of Alanyaspor’s last 20 matches finished in O2.5 Goals (14/20 matches)

AL10A – 80% means that 80% of Alanyaspor’s last 10 home matches finished in O2.5 Goals (8/10 matches)

AL6 – 83% means that 83.33% of Alanyaspor’s last 6 matches finished in O2.5 Goals (5/6 matches)

AVG – 81% is the average for all the 6 stats factors above.

H2H No3 head to head meetings between these two teams (excluding friendlies)

H2H % – 100% means that 100% out of those last 3 matches finished O2.5 Goals (3/3 matches)

The Odds

There are also odds for the Over 2.5 goals outcome – 1.57. These odds were available at the time of downloading the fixtures (2 days before the KO) and are most likely different (more likely lower due to good stats and popularity) now. Let’s have another look at the odds comparison website (oddsportal.com) to give you a better idea of how the odds can fluctuate.

Most of the bookmakers offer O2.5 goals at around 1.50 (1/2 fractional odds) and below. Of course, you can still get 1.60 with some smaller bookmakers, but the odds have already dropped since when we uploaded our stats.

I would like to point out another interesting fact. If you hoover some specific odds, you will be able to see their brief history in the orange box. You will notice that this match was first offered to bet on 7 days in advance and the Over 2.5 goals opening odds with many bookmakers were 1.80 or above. Now that is a massive difference in value! We don’t calculate the stats 7 days in advance for obvious reasons, but you will still be able to find great pre-match trading and value betting opportunities when getting involved a couple of night before the kick-off. If you wish to learn more about the pre-match or pre-kick off trading, we can honestly recommend this superb book.

So we have a good looking match based on stats – it’s a great starting point. But this is where the more important work begins if you are serious about betting and trading.

Further Analysis

Professional betting and trading consist of both statistical and qualitative analyses. The stats bits has been done for you and it leaves you the second part of the puzzle.

Once you have your best Over 2.5 goals statistical selections shortlisted you will need to consider odds (you will need to learn to spot value and poor odds) and look at a few non-statistical factors:

  1. Team’s News – look for any information about injuries or resting of key players.
  2. Team’s Morale – check for any negative news in press from the dressing rooms (e.g. conflicts between players, manager, fans etc.)
  3. Team’s Motivation – consider time and circumstances of the fixture. Is a team playing for the title, promotion/relegation? Or are the players thinking about not getting injured to play in a cup final or some other important match very soon? Or maybe they have nothing to play for at the end of the season?
  4. Weather & playing conditions – remember to check the weather forecast for any severe rain, snow and wind as those will often influence football outcomes even at the highest level (e.g. think waterlogged pitches, snowy or frozen surfaces)
  5. Referee appointments – whether you believe or not, the referee bias exists and affects the outcomes every now and again.
  6. Odds movements & money volumes – be careful when the odds look too good to be true or when the money is backing the opposite score/outcome. Corruption in football is present and with a bit of experience, you will be able to spot some irregular patterns.

Best of luck!

Share your experiences and knowledge of over 2.5 goals markets in the comments section below.

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Football Both Teams To Score (BTTS) or as some call it – Goals Galore, are one of the most popular football betting markets. Whether they are placed as singles or multiples (accumulator coupons) they seem to be a logical market option for goal hungry fans. Every football fan wants to watch a match with plenty of goals and it can only get better when they win their BTTS bets.

Stats

So what does it take to correctly predict matches that finish in both teams scoring? Let’s start with our FREE Both Teams To Score statistics:

On that page, you will find two tables – the first consists of matches from the main leagues and competitions and below you will find the second table with the fixtures from so-called lower leagues and competitions. The main reason for splitting the stats this way is the odds availability. We update our stats a couple of nights before the kick-off to give plenty of time to find good value bets and catch good early odds. It works well with those bigger competitions and leagues. You will also notice that the matches in the second table will often be lacking odds and this is because the bookies are not very quick at pricing them up and often do so a few hours before the kick-off or may not offer some matches for betting at all. Saying so, you may find some real gems in terms of stats for those lower leagues & competitions and some pretty good odds too.

Let’s focus on the TOP 1 stats from our BTTS stats tables – a match that will take place on the 19th of January 2018. It’s a second game week fixture after the winter break in Germany’s top-flight competition – Bundesliga. A match between Hertha Berlin and Borussia Dortmund.

The stats calculations here are straightforward and are as following:

HL20 – 70% means that 70% of Hertha’s last 20 matches finished in BTTS (14/20 matches)

HL10H – 80% means that 80% of Hertha’s last 10 home matches finished in BTTS (8/10 matches)

HL6 – 83% means that 83.33% of Hertha’s last 6 matches finished in BTTS (5/6 matches)

AL20 – 85% means that 85% of BVB’s last 20 matches finished in BTTS (17/20 matches)

AL10A – 80% means that 80% of BVB’s last 10 home matches finished in BTTS (8/10 matches)

AL6 – 67% means that 66.67% of BVB’s last 6 matches finished in BTTS (4/6 matches)

AVG – 78% is the average for all the 6 stats factors above.

H2H No –  8 head to head meetings between these two teams (excluding friendlies)

H2H % – 50% means that 50% out of those last 8 matches finished BTTS (4/8 matches)

There are also odds for BTTS – 1.73. These odds were available at the time of downloading the fixtures (2 days before the KO) and are most likely different (more likely lower due to good stats and popularity) now.

So we have a good looking match based on stats – it’s a great starting point. But this is where the more important work begins if you are serious about betting and trading.

Further Analysis

Professional betting and trading consist of both statistical and qualitative analyses. The stats bits has been done for you and it leaves you the second part of the puzzle.

Once you have your best Both Teams To Score statistical selections shortlisted you will need to consider odds (you will need to learn to spot value and poor odds) and look at a few non-statistical factors:

  1. Team’s News – look for any information about injuries or resting of key players.
  2. Team’s Morale – check for any negative news in press from the dressing rooms (e.g. conflicts between players, manager, fans etc.)
  3. Team’s Motivation – consider time and circumstances of the fixture. Is a team playing for the title, promotion/relegation? Or are the players thinking about not getting injured to play in a cup final or some other important match very soon? Or maybe they have nothing to play for at the end of the season?
  4. Weather & playing conditions – remember to check the weather forecast for any severe rain, snow and wind as those will often influence football outcomes even at the highest level (e.g. think waterlogged pitches, snowy or frozen surfaces)
  5. Referee appointments – whether you believe or not, the referee bias exists and affects the outcomes every now and again.
  6. Odds movements & money volumes – be careful when the odds look too good to be true or when the money is backing the opposite score/outcome. Corruption in football is present and with a bit of experience, you will be able to spot some irregular patterns.

Best of luck!

Share your experiences and knowledge of BTTS markets in the comments section below.

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