How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? – Basketball AH Under Points Stats Guide

9/02/2018

How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? – Basketball AH Under Points Stats Guide

How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? Well, if you are used to betting on let’s say football, you will find basketball under/over lines quite different. Let’s say… more dynamic. Whilst football goals lines remain fixed and you can easily define odds for u/o 2.5 or 3.5 goals markets, basketball lines are different pretty much for every single fixture. It depends from team to team, competition and country, as well as gender and of course skill level. To make sense of those lines, we usually focus on the Even money line. That means 50/50 chance and we look for lines with odds as close as 2.00 as possible. But how to get your head around when you see one match with the Full Time Including Over Time AH under/over line of 140.5 whilst another is put to bet with the line of 218.5? Keeping track and calculating all the stats for every team seems very time consuming and not feasible. However, we believe that we have a perfect solution that solves this problem.

Basketball FTOT inc. OT AH Under Points Stats

Our smart basketball stats cover the Asian Handicaps under points markets and work like a treat. We record every Evens money line where possible and use them in future stats calculations. And we will explain how it exactly works below:

One of the first columns that you will notice is the blue coloured AVG column. It’s the average of 73% for Indiana Pacers vs Phoenix Suns for Under AH FTOT inc. OT Points betting. Is it a chance of 73% for the game finishing under 218.5 points at full time after extra time? Not quite. That number is our calculated average based on 6 other factors. Look at the stats breakdown and full walkthrough below:

For every single team’s last 20 matches (in this case, it’s Indiana Pacers) we check for the Evens odds under/over points line and record the under and over results. We can see that the range of the AH under/over lines for Indiana’s matches is 22 points (highest 221.5, lowest 199.5).  You can also spot the odd NULL entry for the line which means that the AH points line and odds were missing at that time (e.g. bookies have not priced it up for some reason or left it very late). In that case, we simply use the current line (218.5 points) for our stats calculations.

The rest is very straightforward and the stats from the tables for Indiana Pacers vs Phoenix Suns mean the following:

HL20 – 75% means that 75% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (15/20 matches)

HL10H – 70% means that 70% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 10 home matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (7/10 matches)

HL6 – 100% means that 100% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 1 match finished in Under AH Goals Line (6/6 matches)

AL20 – 65% means that 65% of Phoenix Suns‘s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (13/20 matches)

AL10A – 60% means that 60% of Phoenix Suns‘s last 10 away matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (6/10 matches)

AL6 – 66% means that 66.66% of Phoenix Suns‘s last 6 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (4/6 matches)

AVG – 73% is the average for all the 6 stats factors above.

H2H No –  7 head to head meetings between these two teams (excluding friendlies)

H2H % – 71% means that 71.5% out of those last 7 matches finished Under AH Goals Line (5/7 matches)

You will also notice the odds of 1.76 for that Under/Over 218.5 points line. You are allowed to be critical about the spread of those odds. In other words, 1.76 is quite far away from the true even money odds (e.g. 1.95/1.95). However, we will blame the bookmakers for not pricing up the markets sooner than a few hours before the kick-off. Hence the lower odds recorded and lines used for the stats calculations.

On the other hand, such good stats could also have been to blame for such low odds. Have a look at the odds and lines movement since they were published by the bookies:

Bear in mind that our Evens money line was 218.5. And that was approximately 6 hours before the game kicked off. The closing Evens money line was 213.5 with plenty more bookmakers offering (copying the markets) this match for the under/over points betting.
This strong line’s drop proves that basketball under/over markets can be very volatile. We must note that this was the case for one of the most popular basketball competition – NBA. My point is that the more popular competition, the more information is available for bookmakers and yourself to research the betting options. But it’s those smaller and less popular leagues and competitions, with limited information and research opportunities, are the most profitable for the professional bettors and traders.

Further Analysis

Our stats and trends are great and will quickly point you to some good qualifiers for your bets and trades. However, in order to give you an even better chance, you will need to do your own research.

If you want to be really good and achieve a great win rate, you will need to be better informed than the bookies. As I mentioned before, you stand a better chance finding your betting niche in some less popular markets/competitions. What should you look for? You don’t need to worry about the weather in basketball betting as it’s an indoor sport. Your main focus should be on team news and morale. Sometimes teams give chance to their youngsters and rest key players, other times many of the main squad players will be out injured. Just think how that extra information can affect your under points betting chances or can help you catch some really good value odds and lines. Where to look for that information? Just browse club websites and social media profiles, players’ social media pages and fan pages for the teams that you are interested in. Also, internet forums and other punters/tipsters may share some information with you.

If you have any interesting tips or resources for basketball under points betting, please feel free to share them in the comments below.

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Handball – First Half Asian Handicap Under Goals Stats Guide (Learn to bet on under/over AH handball markets)

21/01/2018

Handball – First Half Asian Handicap Under Goals Stats Guide (Learn to bet on under/over AH handball markets)

Handball – First Half Asian Handicap Under Goals betting and trading markets are not considered to be a very popular option for punters and traders. As a sport, handball is very popular in Europe. When it comes to betting or trading, it’s not very well known, nor popular. Saying so, this fact is the best advantage you can have in your campaign against the bookies. The Asian Handicap betting lines offered by the bookmakers are often not very well researched and leave great opportunities for professional punters and traders. I have personally experienced Bookmakers aggressively slashing their odds, massively dropping the AH lines when some well-prepared professionals were recommending their Handball AH lines bets to their followers. So if handball is your passion and you wish to learn more about betting, you will have some wonderful prospects and these Handball stats will make your statistical research a lot easier.

Stats

If you ask punters and traders about under/over lines betting, most of them will tell that they simply can’t back the under goals lines. Why? Because you have to wait until the full time for the outcome to be won and if they watch the game live, the late goals will usually mean bets being lost. They would rather back the over goals lines and enjoy some winners before the match finishes and experience many great matches with last minute winners for their bets.

At the same time, the majority of punters and traders who rely on their emotions, are not successful in the long-term.  If you are an aspiring bettor or trader, you simply can’t afford to overlook the under goals lines markets. These handball First Half AH Under Goals stats are your starting point.

The handball under/over Asian Handicap goals lines are not the same every time and will differ depending on fixtures, competitions, countries etc. That fact makes it extra difficult when it comes to calculating stats. However, we believe that we have a good statistical model for the Handball First Half AH Under Goals markets.

As mentioned previously, we can observe quite good a big range of lines available for the Under/Over First Half Goals markets. Furthermore, the fact that overs are favoured by the punters can also be visible as the under goals odds are usually slightly higher.

Let’s have a look at the TOP 2 stats from our table (as they are both on the top with the 62% average stats). How do we calculate the stats when the under/over lines are likely to be different sometimes? Please refer to the image below:

For every single team’s last 20 matches (in this case, it’s Midtjylland Women) we check for the Evens odds under/over line and record the under and over results. We can see that the AH under/over lines for Midtjylland’s matches has been pretty consistent (23.5 or 24.5 goals). However, this is not the case very often. You can also spot the 4 NULL entries which mean that the goals lines and odds were missing at that time (e.g. bookies have not priced it up for some reason or left it very late). In that case, we simply use the current line (23.5 goals) for our stats calculations.

The rest is very straightforward and the stats from the tables for Ringkobing W vs Midtjylland W mean the following:

HL20 – 40% means that 40% of Ringkobing W’s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (8/20 matches)

HL10H – 60% means that 60% of Ringkobing W’s last 10 home matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (6/10 matches)

HL6 – 16% means that 16.66% of Ringkobing W’s last 1 match finished in Under AH Goals Line (1/6 matches)

AL20 – 80% means that 80% of Midtjylland W’s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (16/20 matches)

AL10A – 90% means that 90% of Midtjylland W’s last 10 away matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (9/10 matches)

AL6 – 83% means that 83.33% of Midtjylland W’s last 6 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (5/6 matches)

AVG – 62% is the average for all the 6 stats factors above.

H2H No –  8 head to head meetings between these two teams (excluding friendlies)

H2H % – 62% means that 62.5% out of those last 8 matches finished Under AH Goals Line (5/8 matches)

There are also the odds for Under AH Goals Line – Under 25.5 goals @ 2.05. These odds were available at the time of downloading the fixtures. The other match with the same stats (Serbia vs Belarus) had significantly higher line (29.5 goals).

You can compare the odds at different bookmakers at oddsportal.com:

In both cases, the odds for under goals halftime lines have drifted before the kick-off. This time, the stats pointed out these two winners, but that will not always be the case.

So we have good looking matches based on stats – it’s a great starting point. But this is where the more important work begins if you are serious about betting and trading.

Further Analysis

Professional betting and trading consist of both statistical and qualitative analyses. The stats bits has been done for you and it leaves you the second part of the puzzle.

Once you have your best Under Goals statistical selections shortlisted you will need to consider odds (you will need to learn to spot value and poor odds) and look at a few non-statistical factors:

  1. Team’s News – look for any information about injuries or resting of key players.
  2. Team’s Morale – check for any negative news in press from the dressing rooms (e.g. conflicts between players, manager, fans etc.)
  3. Team’s Motivation – consider time and circumstances of the fixture. Is a team playing for the title, promotion/relegation? Or are the players thinking about not getting injured to play in a cup final or some other important match very soon? Or maybe they have nothing to play for at the end of the season?
  4. Odds movements & money volumes – be careful when the odds look too good to be true or when the money is backing the opposite score/outcome. Corruption in sports is present and with a bit of experience, you will be able to spot some irregular patterns.

Best of luck!

Share your experiences and knowledge of Handball Under AH First Half Goals Lines markets in the comments section below.

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Hockey – Full Time Asian Handicap Under Goals Stats Guide

18/01/2018

Hockey – Full Time Asian Handicap Under Goals Stats Guide

Hockey – Full Time Asian Handicap Under Goals betting and trading markets are not considered to be a very popular option for punters and traders. Firstly, if you are a hockey fan and bet on the AH goals markets you would rather want to watch a match with plenty of goals, so backing the under AH lines would be contrary to those beliefs. Secondary, if you ask punters and traders about under/over lines betting, most of them will tell that they simply can’t back the under goals lines. Why? Because you have to wait until the full time for the outcome to be won and if they watch the game live, the late goals will usually mean bets being lost. They would rather back the over goals lines and enjoy some winners before the match finishes and experience many great matches with last minute winners for their bets.

At the same time, the majority of punters and traders who rely on their emotions, are not successful in the long-term.  If you are an aspiring bettor or trader, you simply can’t afford to overlook the under goals lines markets. These hockey FT AH Under Goals stats are your starting point.

Stats

The hockey under/over Asian Handicap goals lines are not the same every time and will differ depending on fixtures, competitions, countries etc. That fact makes it extra difficult when it comes to calculating stats. However, we believe that we have a good statistical model for the Hockey FT Under AH Goals markets.

 

Let’s have a look at the TOP 1 stats from our table – AHL match between Utica Comets and Rochester Americans. How do we calculate the stats when the under/over lines are likely to be different sometimes? Please refer to the image below:

 

For every single team’s last 20 matches (in this case, it’s Utica Comets) we check for the Evens odds under/over line and record the under and over results. We can see that the AH under/over lines for Utica’s matches has been pretty consistent (5.5 goals). However, this is not the case very often. You can also spot the single 4.5 goals line and one missing line (e.g. bookies have not priced it up for some reason). In that case, we simply use the current line (5.5 goals) for our stats calculations.

The rest is very straightforward and the stats from the tables stand for the following:

HL20 – 55% means that 55% of Utica’s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (11/20 matches)

HL10H – 40% means that 40% of Utica’s last 10 home matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (4/10 matches)

HL6 – 50% means that 50% of Utica’s last 6 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (5/6 matches)

AL20 – 80% means that 80% of Rochester’s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (16/20 matches)

AL10A – 90% means that 90% of Rochester’s last 10 away matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (9/10 matches)

AL6 – 83% means that 83.33% of Rochester’s last 6 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (5/6 matches)

AVG – 66% is the average for all the 6 stats factors above.

H2H No –  8 head to head meetings between these two teams (excluding friendlies)

H2H % – 75% means that 75% out of those last 8 matches finished Under AH Goals Line (6/8 matches)

There are also the odds for Under AH Goals Line – Under 5.5 goals @ 1.78. These odds were available at the time of downloading the fixtures.

You can compare the odds at different bookmakers at oddsportal.com:

There you go. 1XBet offered 1.80 for Under 5.5 FT goals. This match finished 2:2 (3:2 after penalties) and resulted in a nice win! That was based only on stats though.

So we have a good looking match based on stats – it’s a great starting point. But this is where the more important work begins if you are serious about betting and trading.

Further Analysis

Professional betting and trading consist of both statistical and qualitative analyses. The stats bits has been done for you and it leaves you the second part of the puzzle.

Once you have your best Under Goals statistical selections shortlisted you will need to consider odds (you will need to learn to spot value and poor odds) and look at a few non-statistical factors:

  1. Team’s News – look for any information about injuries or resting of key players.
  2. Team’s Morale – check for any negative news in press from the dressing rooms (e.g. conflicts between players, manager, fans etc.)
  3. Team’s Motivation – consider time and circumstances of the fixture. Is a team playing for the title, promotion/relegation? Or are the players thinking about not getting injured to play in a cup final or some other important match very soon? Or maybe they have nothing to play for at the end of the season?
  4. Odds movements & money volumes – be careful when the odds look too good to be true or when the money is backing the opposite score/outcome. Corruption in sports is present and with a bit of experience, you will be able to spot some irregular patterns.

Best of luck!

Share your experiences and knowledge of Hockey Under AH Goals Lines markets in the comments section below.

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