How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? – Basketball AH Under Points Stats Guide

9/02/2018

How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? – Basketball AH Under Points Stats Guide

How to bet on Basketball Under Points markets? Well, if you are used to betting on let’s say football, you will find basketball under/over lines quite different. Let’s say… more dynamic. Whilst football goals lines remain fixed and you can easily define odds for u/o 2.5 or 3.5 goals markets, basketball lines are different pretty much for every single fixture. It depends from team to team, competition and country, as well as gender and of course skill level. To make sense of those lines, we usually focus on the Even money line. That means 50/50 chance and we look for lines with odds as close as 2.00 as possible. But how to get your head around when you see one match with the Full Time Including Over Time AH under/over line of 140.5 whilst another is put to bet with the line of 218.5? Keeping track and calculating all the stats for every team seems very time consuming and not feasible. However, we believe that we have a perfect solution that solves this problem.

Basketball FTOT inc. OT AH Under Points Stats

Our smart basketball stats cover the Asian Handicaps under points markets and work like a treat. We record every Evens money line where possible and use them in future stats calculations. And we will explain how it exactly works below:

One of the first columns that you will notice is the blue coloured AVG column. It’s the average of 73% for Indiana Pacers vs Phoenix Suns for Under AH FTOT inc. OT Points betting. Is it a chance of 73% for the game finishing under 218.5 points at full time after extra time? Not quite. That number is our calculated average based on 6 other factors. Look at the stats breakdown and full walkthrough below:

For every single team’s last 20 matches (in this case, it’s Indiana Pacers) we check for the Evens odds under/over points line and record the under and over results. We can see that the range of the AH under/over lines for Indiana’s matches is 22 points (highest 221.5, lowest 199.5).  You can also spot the odd NULL entry for the line which means that the AH points line and odds were missing at that time (e.g. bookies have not priced it up for some reason or left it very late). In that case, we simply use the current line (218.5 points) for our stats calculations.

The rest is very straightforward and the stats from the tables for Indiana Pacers vs Phoenix Suns mean the following:

HL20 – 75% means that 75% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (15/20 matches)

HL10H – 70% means that 70% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 10 home matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (7/10 matches)

HL6 – 100% means that 100% of Indiana Pacers‘s last 1 match finished in Under AH Goals Line (6/6 matches)

AL20 – 65% means that 65% of Phoenix Suns‘s last 20 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (13/20 matches)

AL10A – 60% means that 60% of Phoenix Suns‘s last 10 away matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (6/10 matches)

AL6 – 66% means that 66.66% of Phoenix Suns‘s last 6 matches finished in Under AH Goals Line (4/6 matches)

AVG – 73% is the average for all the 6 stats factors above.

H2H No –  7 head to head meetings between these two teams (excluding friendlies)

H2H % – 71% means that 71.5% out of those last 7 matches finished Under AH Goals Line (5/7 matches)

You will also notice the odds of 1.76 for that Under/Over 218.5 points line. You are allowed to be critical about the spread of those odds. In other words, 1.76 is quite far away from the true even money odds (e.g. 1.95/1.95). However, we will blame the bookmakers for not pricing up the markets sooner than a few hours before the kick-off. Hence the lower odds recorded and lines used for the stats calculations.

On the other hand, such good stats could also have been to blame for such low odds. Have a look at the odds and lines movement since they were published by the bookies:

Bear in mind that our Evens money line was 218.5. And that was approximately 6 hours before the game kicked off. The closing Evens money line was 213.5 with plenty more bookmakers offering (copying the markets) this match for the under/over points betting.
This strong line’s drop proves that basketball under/over markets can be very volatile. We must note that this was the case for one of the most popular basketball competition – NBA. My point is that the more popular competition, the more information is available for bookmakers and yourself to research the betting options. But it’s those smaller and less popular leagues and competitions, with limited information and research opportunities, are the most profitable for the professional bettors and traders.

Further Analysis

Our stats and trends are great and will quickly point you to some good qualifiers for your bets and trades. However, in order to give you an even better chance, you will need to do your own research.

If you want to be really good and achieve a great win rate, you will need to be better informed than the bookies. As I mentioned before, you stand a better chance finding your betting niche in some less popular markets/competitions. What should you look for? You don’t need to worry about the weather in basketball betting as it’s an indoor sport. Your main focus should be on team news and morale. Sometimes teams give chance to their youngsters and rest key players, other times many of the main squad players will be out injured. Just think how that extra information can affect your under points betting chances or can help you catch some really good value odds and lines. Where to look for that information? Just browse club websites and social media profiles, players’ social media pages and fan pages for the teams that you are interested in. Also, internet forums and other punters/tipsters may share some information with you.

If you have any interesting tips or resources for basketball under points betting, please feel free to share them in the comments below.

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Using Head To Head trends for football betting and trading

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Using Head To Head trends for football betting and trading

When you analyze football matches for betting or trading, you usually pay the most attention to the form stats. The next step is often to check the Head To Head (H2H) trends. It’s always reassuring to see some good form stats being backed by the H2H stats. In this guide, I will explain to you why it’s useful to start with the Head To Head trends for some markets and will show you how to use smart sports stats H2H columns that we offer for all sports and markets.

What is Head To Head?

H2H is simply a record of two teams playing against each other. Depending on sport, country and competition, the two teams will play each other at least twice (home and away) during the season or year. The H2H records are usually used to find apparent patterns and trends such as one team’s dominance, low or high goal scoring affairs, ‘friendly’ or very feisty matches with plenty of bookings and other patterns. Take for example derby matches between teams for the same city. You may often hear people saying that the stats forms go out of the window for those encounters. Therefore it’s possible to identify some good betting and trading opportunities very quickly just by looking at some solid H2H records.

H2H trends (Find the best patterns in seconds)

When you browse our stats tables, you will notice two H2H columns:

  • H2H No – it’s simply number of the H2H matches between teams two teams excluding friendlies (maximum of last 8 matches)
  • H2H % or H2H Avg – it’s a percentage of a given outcome e.g. BTTS or the average number of goals in those H2H meetings etc.

Those two columns are usually displayed after the blue column with the AVG % stats. See the example below:

In order to find the best H2H records, please click on the H2H % header (see the green arrow on the screenshot above). For example, we have the Over 2.5 goals stats above and after sorting the stats by the H2H %, we can see the matches with the biggest % of over 2.5 goals in the H2H matches.

Please note

The first match on the list (Kiel vs Union) shows 100% for the H2H over 2.5 goals, however, it’s based only on 1 match, as this is how many times those two teams faced each other in the recent years.

Filtering the H2H No (Number of H2H matches)

Let’s filter the stats and look for matches that had 8 H2H meetings. Just type 8 in the H2H No column as shown on the picture below:

Looking for value bets and trades with the H2H trends

After sorting the over 2.5 goals stats table above, we can notice that one match (Rangers vs Aberdeen) stands out with the H2H trends % and can be backed at very good odds of 2.00 (Evens). This fixture finished over 2.5 goals 7 out of 8 last matches.

The odds for this match finishing in 3 or more goals are around 2.00, which means that the bookies give it around 50% chance.

Are the good H2H trends on their own enough to place the bet?

Would I back the over 2.5 goals in that match at those odds based only on the 7/8 previous matches finished in 3 or more goals? No. The goals markets are very specific and require more analysis before taking low or high goals scoring positions. I would like to know about key players availability for this match (especially strikers) – I would rather want to see them playing. But I would mind for the key defenders to miss out on that match. Furthermore, I would check the weather forecast for the match time and ensure that the playing surface is not unplayable (heavy snow or rain). It’s January in Scotland at the end of the day… the KO is scheduled late in the evening. I would try to find out as much as possible about the teams’ morale and motivation etc. After checking those aspects and some more information, I would have a better chance of winning this bet. Thanks to the H2H trends, I have a great starting point.

Other opportunities based on the H2H Trends

One of the best uses of the Head To Head trends are Bookings and Sending Off markets. They make more sense to use than the form bookings stats. You can probably recall some very brutal matches with plenty of cards and you will expect certain rivalries to produce similar outcomes again. Sevilla vs Betis, Liverpool vs Everton, Roma vs Lazio, Real vs Barcelona are only a few of the pairs that may come to you when thinking about feisty encounters. Our Bookings H2H trends will point out many more of interesting patterns. Have a look at the example below:

Matches sorted by highest over 5.5 yellow cards. First one up Espanyol vs Sevilla:

And the cherry on top of the cake: 

Guimaraes vs Estoril produced 3 matches with over 0.5 red cards and 2 matches with over 1.5 red cards in their last 8 H2H meetings.

Perhaps Abner took his first opportunity to revenge something from his last encounter with Guimaraes as he only lasted 9 minutes before being shown the red card.

 

That’s why I truly rate the H2H trends and would recommend it to anyone to use them more in their betting & trading. Best of luck!

Share your experiences and knowledge of H2H trends in the comments section below.

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Stats Update Times

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Stats Update Times

Running the Smart Sports Stats services is a complex activity and it involves a dedicated server to download, calculate and update all sports statistics. Over the years of running our stats websites, we have found and established the best practices to keep everything working as flawless as possible.

You can refer to this post as a quick guide to the stats update times for every sport. I would like to point out an important issue with bookmakers and their odds/lines publishing times. We have found that the bookies are quite lazy slow when it comes to publishing lines for certain sports such as basketball, tennis, handball, volleyball etc. That means that some of the lines for those less popular leagues and competitions are not added until a few hours before the matches, which makes it impossible for us to run the full data cycle and include them in our stats tables. There is no such issue with football and the fixed betting lines e.g. (under/over 2.5 goals etc.) make it possible to update our stats 2 days in advance (in some cases the odds may not be available though).

In order to increase the number of matches included in the Asian Handicap stats for all sports excluding football, we run double updates – a night before and on the morning of the kick-off. Please find the full list of stats update times for all our sports below:

Football – 7pm (2 days in advance)

Basketball, Handball, Volleyball, Hockey and Tennis – 7 pm and 7 am every day

American Football and MLB – 7 pm and 11am every day

All quoted times are UK time zone times.

Please note, that we can only calculate our Asian Handicap stats if the lines for Under/Over and Home/Away markets are available and priced up by the bookies.

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