Using Head To Head trends for football betting and trading

23/01/2018

Using Head To Head trends for football betting and trading

When you analyze football matches for betting or trading, you usually pay the most attention to the form stats. The next step is often to check the Head To Head (H2H) trends. It’s always reassuring to see some good form stats being backed by the H2H stats. In this guide, I will explain to you why it’s useful to start with the Head To Head trends for some markets and will show you how to use smart sports stats H2H columns that we offer for all sports and markets.

What is Head To Head?

H2H is simply a record of two teams playing against each other. Depending on sport, country and competition, the two teams will play each other at least twice (home and away) during the season or year. The H2H records are usually used to find apparent patterns and trends such as one team’s dominance, low or high goal scoring affairs, ‘friendly’ or very feisty matches with plenty of bookings and other patterns. Take for example derby matches between teams for the same city. You may often hear people saying that the stats forms go out of the window for those encounters. Therefore it’s possible to identify some good betting and trading opportunities very quickly just by looking at some solid H2H records.

H2H trends (Find the best patterns in seconds)

When you browse our stats tables, you will notice two H2H columns:

  • H2H No – it’s simply number of the H2H matches between teams two teams excluding friendlies (maximum of last 8 matches)
  • H2H % or H2H Avg – it’s a percentage of a given outcome e.g. BTTS or the average number of goals in those H2H meetings etc.

Those two columns are usually displayed after the blue column with the AVG % stats. See the example below:

In order to find the best H2H records, please click on the H2H % header (see the green arrow on the screenshot above). For example, we have the Over 2.5 goals stats above and after sorting the stats by the H2H %, we can see the matches with the biggest % of over 2.5 goals in the H2H matches.

Please note

The first match on the list (Kiel vs Union) shows 100% for the H2H over 2.5 goals, however, it’s based only on 1 match, as this is how many times those two teams faced each other in the recent years.

Filtering the H2H No (Number of H2H matches)

Let’s filter the stats and look for matches that had 8 H2H meetings. Just type 8 in the H2H No column as shown on the picture below:

Looking for value bets and trades with the H2H trends

After sorting the over 2.5 goals stats table above, we can notice that one match (Rangers vs Aberdeen) stands out with the H2H trends % and can be backed at very good odds of 2.00 (Evens). This fixture finished over 2.5 goals 7 out of 8 last matches.

The odds for this match finishing in 3 or more goals are around 2.00, which means that the bookies give it around 50% chance.

Are the good H2H trends on their own enough to place the bet?

Would I back the over 2.5 goals in that match at those odds based only on the 7/8 previous matches finished in 3 or more goals? No. The goals markets are very specific and require more analysis before taking low or high goals scoring positions. I would like to know about key players availability for this match (especially strikers) – I would rather want to see them playing. But I would mind for the key defenders to miss out on that match. Furthermore, I would check the weather forecast for the match time and ensure that the playing surface is not unplayable (heavy snow or rain). It’s January in Scotland at the end of the day… the KO is scheduled late in the evening. I would try to find out as much as possible about the teams’ morale and motivation etc. After checking those aspects and some more information, I would have a better chance of winning this bet. Thanks to the H2H trends, I have a great starting point.

Other opportunities based on the H2H Trends

One of the best uses of the Head To Head trends are Bookings and Sending Off markets. They make more sense to use than the form bookings stats. You can probably recall some very brutal matches with plenty of cards and you will expect certain rivalries to produce similar outcomes again. Sevilla vs Betis, Liverpool vs Everton, Roma vs Lazio, Real vs Barcelona are only a few of the pairs that may come to you when thinking about feisty encounters. Our Bookings H2H trends will point out many more of interesting patterns. Have a look at the example below:

Matches sorted by highest over 5.5 yellow cards. First one up Espanyol vs Sevilla:

And the cherry on top of the cake: 

Guimaraes vs Estoril produced 3 matches with over 0.5 red cards and 2 matches with over 1.5 red cards in their last 8 H2H meetings.

Perhaps Abner took his first opportunity to revenge something from his last encounter with Guimaraes as he only lasted 9 minutes before being shown the red card.

 

That’s why I truly rate the H2H trends and would recommend it to anyone to use them more in their betting & trading. Best of luck!

Share your experiences and knowledge of H2H trends in the comments section below.

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19/01/2018

Football – Over 2.5 Goals Statistics Guide (Learn to bet on Over 2.5 goals markets)

Football Over 2.5 Goals markets are one of the most popular football betting and trading markets. Whether they are placed as singles or multiples (accumulator coupons) they seem to be a logical market option for goal hungry fans. Every football fan wants to watch a match with plenty of goals and it can only get better when they win theirs over 2.5 goals bets.

Stats

So what does it take to correctly predict matches that finish in over 2.5 goals? Let’s start with our Smart Over 2.5 Goals Statistics:

On that page, you will find two tables – the first consists of matches from the main leagues and competitions and below you will find the second table with the fixtures from so-called lower leagues and competitions. The main reason for splitting the stats this way is the odds availability. We update our stats a couple of nights before the kick-off to give plenty of time to find good value bets and catch good early odds. It works well with those bigger competitions and leagues. You will also notice that the matches in the second table will often be lacking odds and this is because the bookies are not very quick at pricing them up and often do so a few hours before the kick-off or may not offer some matches for betting at all. Saying so, you may find some real gems in terms of stats for those lower leagues & competitions and some pretty good odds too.

The stats themselves are pretty easy to calculate and this particular model has been working great over the years to predict over 2.5 goals correctly. We look at the long, medium and short-term form and trends for both teams, as well as include head to head stats. 

Let’s focus on the TOP 1 stats from our Over 2.5 Goals stats tables for the upcoming fixtures – a match that will take place on the 19th of January 2018. Kasimpasa will host Alanyaspor in Turkish Super League. Why is this match the top one from the main leagues and competitions?

The stats calculations here are straightforward and are as following:

HL20 – 80% means that 80% of Kasimpasa’s last 20 matches finished in O2.5 Goals (16/20 matches)

HL10H – 90% means that 90% of Kasimpasa’s last 10 home matches finished in O2.5 Goals (9/10 matches)

HL6 – 83% means that 83.33% of Kasimpasa’s last 6 matches finished in O2.5 Goals (5/6 matches)

AL20 – 70% means that 70% of Alanyaspor’s last 20 matches finished in O2.5 Goals (14/20 matches)

AL10A – 80% means that 80% of Alanyaspor’s last 10 home matches finished in O2.5 Goals (8/10 matches)

AL6 – 83% means that 83.33% of Alanyaspor’s last 6 matches finished in O2.5 Goals (5/6 matches)

AVG – 81% is the average for all the 6 stats factors above.

H2H No3 head to head meetings between these two teams (excluding friendlies)

H2H % – 100% means that 100% out of those last 3 matches finished O2.5 Goals (3/3 matches)

The Odds

There are also odds for the Over 2.5 goals outcome – 1.57. These odds were available at the time of downloading the fixtures (2 days before the KO) and are most likely different (more likely lower due to good stats and popularity) now. Let’s have another look at the odds comparison website (oddsportal.com) to give you a better idea of how the odds can fluctuate.

Most of the bookmakers offer O2.5 goals at around 1.50 (1/2 fractional odds) and below. Of course, you can still get 1.60 with some smaller bookmakers, but the odds have already dropped since when we uploaded our stats.

I would like to point out another interesting fact. If you hoover some specific odds, you will be able to see their brief history in the orange box. You will notice that this match was first offered to bet on 7 days in advance and the Over 2.5 goals opening odds with many bookmakers were 1.80 or above. Now that is a massive difference in value! We don’t calculate the stats 7 days in advance for obvious reasons, but you will still be able to find great pre-match trading and value betting opportunities when getting involved a couple of night before the kick-off. If you wish to learn more about the pre-match or pre-kick off trading, we can honestly recommend this superb book.

So we have a good looking match based on stats – it’s a great starting point. But this is where the more important work begins if you are serious about betting and trading.

Further Analysis

Professional betting and trading consist of both statistical and qualitative analyses. The stats bits has been done for you and it leaves you the second part of the puzzle.

Once you have your best Over 2.5 goals statistical selections shortlisted you will need to consider odds (you will need to learn to spot value and poor odds) and look at a few non-statistical factors:

  1. Team’s News – look for any information about injuries or resting of key players.
  2. Team’s Morale – check for any negative news in press from the dressing rooms (e.g. conflicts between players, manager, fans etc.)
  3. Team’s Motivation – consider time and circumstances of the fixture. Is a team playing for the title, promotion/relegation? Or are the players thinking about not getting injured to play in a cup final or some other important match very soon? Or maybe they have nothing to play for at the end of the season?
  4. Weather & playing conditions – remember to check the weather forecast for any severe rain, snow and wind as those will often influence football outcomes even at the highest level (e.g. think waterlogged pitches, snowy or frozen surfaces)
  5. Referee appointments – whether you believe or not, the referee bias exists and affects the outcomes every now and again.
  6. Odds movements & money volumes – be careful when the odds look too good to be true or when the money is backing the opposite score/outcome. Corruption in football is present and with a bit of experience, you will be able to spot some irregular patterns.

Best of luck!

Share your experiences and knowledge of over 2.5 goals markets in the comments section below.

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Football Both Teams To Score (BTTS) or as some call it – Goals Galore, are one of the most popular football betting markets. Whether they are placed as singles or multiples (accumulator coupons) they seem to be a logical market option for goal hungry fans. Every football fan wants to watch a match with plenty of goals and it can only get better when they win their BTTS bets.

Stats

So what does it take to correctly predict matches that finish in both teams scoring? Let’s start with our FREE Both Teams To Score statistics:

On that page, you will find two tables – the first consists of matches from the main leagues and competitions and below you will find the second table with the fixtures from so-called lower leagues and competitions. The main reason for splitting the stats this way is the odds availability. We update our stats a couple of nights before the kick-off to give plenty of time to find good value bets and catch good early odds. It works well with those bigger competitions and leagues. You will also notice that the matches in the second table will often be lacking odds and this is because the bookies are not very quick at pricing them up and often do so a few hours before the kick-off or may not offer some matches for betting at all. Saying so, you may find some real gems in terms of stats for those lower leagues & competitions and some pretty good odds too.

Let’s focus on the TOP 1 stats from our BTTS stats tables – a match that will take place on the 19th of January 2018. It’s a second game week fixture after the winter break in Germany’s top-flight competition – Bundesliga. A match between Hertha Berlin and Borussia Dortmund.

The stats calculations here are straightforward and are as following:

HL20 – 70% means that 70% of Hertha’s last 20 matches finished in BTTS (14/20 matches)

HL10H – 80% means that 80% of Hertha’s last 10 home matches finished in BTTS (8/10 matches)

HL6 – 83% means that 83.33% of Hertha’s last 6 matches finished in BTTS (5/6 matches)

AL20 – 85% means that 85% of BVB’s last 20 matches finished in BTTS (17/20 matches)

AL10A – 80% means that 80% of BVB’s last 10 home matches finished in BTTS (8/10 matches)

AL6 – 67% means that 66.67% of BVB’s last 6 matches finished in BTTS (4/6 matches)

AVG – 78% is the average for all the 6 stats factors above.

H2H No –  8 head to head meetings between these two teams (excluding friendlies)

H2H % – 50% means that 50% out of those last 8 matches finished BTTS (4/8 matches)

There are also odds for BTTS – 1.73. These odds were available at the time of downloading the fixtures (2 days before the KO) and are most likely different (more likely lower due to good stats and popularity) now.

So we have a good looking match based on stats – it’s a great starting point. But this is where the more important work begins if you are serious about betting and trading.

Further Analysis

Professional betting and trading consist of both statistical and qualitative analyses. The stats bits has been done for you and it leaves you the second part of the puzzle.

Once you have your best Both Teams To Score statistical selections shortlisted you will need to consider odds (you will need to learn to spot value and poor odds) and look at a few non-statistical factors:

  1. Team’s News – look for any information about injuries or resting of key players.
  2. Team’s Morale – check for any negative news in press from the dressing rooms (e.g. conflicts between players, manager, fans etc.)
  3. Team’s Motivation – consider time and circumstances of the fixture. Is a team playing for the title, promotion/relegation? Or are the players thinking about not getting injured to play in a cup final or some other important match very soon? Or maybe they have nothing to play for at the end of the season?
  4. Weather & playing conditions – remember to check the weather forecast for any severe rain, snow and wind as those will often influence football outcomes even at the highest level (e.g. think waterlogged pitches, snowy or frozen surfaces)
  5. Referee appointments – whether you believe or not, the referee bias exists and affects the outcomes every now and again.
  6. Odds movements & money volumes – be careful when the odds look too good to be true or when the money is backing the opposite score/outcome. Corruption in football is present and with a bit of experience, you will be able to spot some irregular patterns.

Best of luck!

Share your experiences and knowledge of BTTS markets in the comments section below.

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Football Over 2.5 Goals markets are one of the most popular football [more]

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