Football – Over 2.5 Goals Statistics Guide (Learn to bet on Over 2.5 goals markets)

Football Over 2.5 Goals markets are one of the most popular football betting and trading markets. Whether they are placed as singles or multiples (accumulator coupons) they seem to be a logical market option for goal hungry fans. Every football fan wants to watch a match with plenty of goals and it can only get better when they win theirs over 2.5 goals bets.

Stats

So what does it take to correctly predict matches that finish in over 2.5 goals? Let’s start with our Smart Over 2.5 Goals Statistics:

On that page, you will find two tables – the first consists of matches from the main leagues and competitions and below you will find the second table with the fixtures from so-called lower leagues and competitions. The main reason for splitting the stats this way is the odds availability. We update our stats a couple of nights before the kick-off to give plenty of time to find good value bets and catch good early odds. It works well with those bigger competitions and leagues. You will also notice that the matches in the second table will often be lacking odds and this is because the bookies are not very quick at pricing them up and often do so a few hours before the kick-off or may not offer some matches for betting at all. Saying so, you may find some real gems in terms of stats for those lower leagues & competitions and some pretty good odds too.

The stats themselves are pretty easy to calculate and this particular model has been working great over the years to predict over 2.5 goals correctly. We look at the long, medium and short-term form and trends for both teams, as well as include head to head stats. 

Let’s focus on the TOP 1 stats from our Over 2.5 Goals stats tables for the upcoming fixtures – a match that will take place on the 19th of January 2018. Kasimpasa will host Alanyaspor in Turkish Super League. Why is this match the top one from the main leagues and competitions?

The stats calculations here are straightforward and are as following:

HL20 – 80% means that 80% of Kasimpasa’s last 20 matches finished in O2.5 Goals (16/20 matches)

HL10H – 90% means that 90% of Kasimpasa’s last 10 home matches finished in O2.5 Goals (9/10 matches)

HL6 – 83% means that 83.33% of Kasimpasa’s last 6 matches finished in O2.5 Goals (5/6 matches)

AL20 – 70% means that 70% of Alanyaspor’s last 20 matches finished in O2.5 Goals (14/20 matches)

AL10A – 80% means that 80% of Alanyaspor’s last 10 home matches finished in O2.5 Goals (8/10 matches)

AL6 – 83% means that 83.33% of Alanyaspor’s last 6 matches finished in O2.5 Goals (5/6 matches)

AVG – 81% is the average for all the 6 stats factors above.

H2H No – 3 head to head meetings between these two teams (excluding friendlies)

H2H % – 100% means that 100% out of those last 3 matches finished O2.5 Goals (3/3 matches)

The Odds

There are also odds for the Over 2.5 goals outcome – 1.57. These odds were available at the time of downloading the fixtures (2 days before the KO) and are most likely different (more likely lower due to good stats and popularity) now. Let’s have another look at the odds comparison website (oddsportal.com) to give you a better idea of how the odds can fluctuate.

Most of the bookmakers offer O2.5 goals at around 1.50 (1/2 fractional odds) and below. Of course, you can still get 1.60 with some smaller bookmakers, but the odds have already dropped since when we uploaded our stats.

I would like to point out another interesting fact. If you hoover some specific odds, you will be able to see their brief history in the orange box. You will notice that this match was first offered to bet on 7 days in advance and the Over 2.5 goals opening odds with many bookmakers were 1.80 or above. Now that is a massive difference in value! We don’t calculate the stats 7 days in advance for obvious reasons, but you will still be able to find great pre-match trading and value betting opportunities when getting involved a couple of night before the kick-off. If you wish to learn more about the pre-match or pre-kick off trading, we can honestly recommend this superb book.

So we have a good looking match based on stats – it’s a great starting point. But this is where the more important work begins if you are serious about betting and trading.

Further Analysis

Professional betting and trading consist of both statistical and qualitative analyses. The stats bits has been done for you and it leaves you the second part of the puzzle.

Once you have your best Over 2.5 goals statistical selections shortlisted you will need to consider odds (you will need to learn to spot value and poor odds) and look at a few non-statistical factors:

1. Team’s News – look for any information about injuries or resting of key players.
2. Team’s Morale – check for any negative news in press from the dressing rooms (e.g. conflicts between players, manager, fans etc.)
3. Team’s Motivation – consider time and circumstances of the fixture. Is a team playing for the title, promotion/relegation? Or are the players thinking about not getting injured to play in a cup final or some other important match very soon? Or maybe they have nothing to play for at the end of the season?
4. Weather & playing conditions – remember to check the weather forecast for any severe rain, snow and wind as those will often influence football outcomes even at the highest level (e.g. think waterlogged pitches, snowy or frozen surfaces)
5. Referee appointments – whether you believe or not, the referee bias exists and affects the outcomes every now and again.
6. Odds movements & money volumes – be careful when the odds look too good to be true or when the money is backing the opposite score/outcome. Corruption in football is present and with a bit of experience, you will be able to spot some irregular patterns.

Best of luck!

Share your experiences and knowledge of over 2.5 goals markets in the comments section below.